Solo vs Pool Risk Comparison
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why expected value isn’t enough for solo mining
.
Coin
BTC
BCH
Hashrate
Horizon (days)
Coin price (USD)
Electricity cost ($/kWh)
ASIC power (watts)
Pool fee (%)
You can enter 2, 0.02, or 2% (we normalize).
Advanced
Monte Carlo runs
Reserved for later (not used in v1 compare math yet).
Histogram scale
Log Y (tails)
Useful when one bin dominates and tails are hard to see.
Heatmap resolution
11 × 11 (fast)
15 × 15 (default)
21 × 21 (detailed)
Higher resolution is slower (more server work).
Compare
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Decision signal
Expected value delta
(Solo EV − Pool EV)
Key probabilities
P(0 blocks)
P(lose money)
P(solo underperforms pool)
Interpretation
Rule of thumb: if
P(0 blocks)
is high, solo behaves like a lottery even if EV is positive.
Solo
Pool
Risk Heatmap: P(net < 0)
X = coin price, Y = electricity cost. Each cell is the probability your solo net is negative.
<20%
20–50%
50–80%
>80%
Axes
Right: higher price
Up: higher $/kWh
Bars: probability mass by outcome bin. Lines:
EV
and
Breakeven (0)
. Shading:
net < 0
.
Solo Net Distribution (USD)
Solo vs Pool Delta (USD)