Methods

Solo Odds models solo block-finding as a Poisson process. It is a variance model, not a profit calculator. Why EV isn’t enough.

Core model

• Let λ be your expected blocks per day.
• Over a horizon with integrated intensity μ, block count K ~ Poisson(μ).
• P(≥1) = 1 - e^-μ and P(0) = e^-μ.

Drift

Drift models network growth as a deterministic change to λ over time:

• flat: constant λ
• step: λ increases by a fixed percent every N days
• linear: λ increases by a fixed percent daily

When drift is enabled, the horizon is split into segments and μ is the sum of segment μ values.

Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo simulates block counts by sampling a Poisson draw per segment and aggregating across the horizon. Time-to-first-block is estimated from simulated first arrivals inside segments.

Data sources

Network snapshots are fetched from public APIs and cached locally as data/<coin>/latest.json.

Non-goals

• Profitability modeling (electricity, fees, pool payout variance)
• Hardware monitoring (temps, fan, uptime)
• Financial advice